A Review by Kye Chapman, 4 September 2026

 

At the end of August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) hosted a webinar talking about climate updates from the past month and what general trends are likely to happen in the upcoming months.

There were four topics and presenters this meeting: Chris Furhmann from the SE Regional Climate Center, doing a Climate Overview; Shelby Saxton from the National Weather Service (NWS) Southeast River Forecast Center, doing a Water Resources Overview; Pam Knox from the University of Georgia, doing an Agriculture Impact Update; and Michael Gavazzi from the USDA Southeast Climate Hub, presenting the special topic “Drought Preparation, Management, and Recovery Guides for Southeast Farmers.”

This August is the hottest on record for Florida, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and the coastal Carolinas. Fuhrmann highlighted Miami, which broke 100F for the first time since 1895. Much of Puerto Rico is experiencing water shortages and rationing alongside this record-breaking heat. Despite feeling like we are having daily scattered showers, Florida is still in a drought. Most of Hillsborough has gotten 8 or more inches of rainfall this month and yet is still in a 10 inch deficit of rain. This ties into the second talk, the Water Resources Overview with Shelby Saxton. Most rivers in Florida are still below normal records. One thing I noticed is that many of the lowest rivers originate in the Green Swamp: The Withlacoochee, Hillsborough, and Peace Rivers are all extremely below normal levels with the Ocklawaha also below average. Other local rivers, like the Alafia, Anclote, and Little Manatee rivers, are near normal levels.

Another interesting point Knox brought up during the Agriculture Impact Update is that drought-stricken soils are warmer. The higher soil temperature causes more evaporation, meaning that when rain does come, the soil cannot retain the moisture as well. The plants need to absorb more of that rain to cope, leaving little leftover for aquifer recharge. This could be yet another compounding reason why Tampa Bay is under such severe drought conditions despite nearly daily rain. 

 

A big part of the webinar focused on updates and predictions about the ongoing El Niño. Fuhrmann emphasized that there is a 90% chance that we are going to experience a very strong El Niño event this coming Fall and Winter. Because summertime El Niño conditions create wind shear that makes it difficult for hurricanes to develop, the Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to produce fewer named storms than average. For our area, this comes as a mixed bag. While I certainly don’t want to wish the destruction of a hurricane on our region, a large portion of our annual rainfall comes from tropical weather. Due to a lack of tropical storms in 2025, we entered the last dry season already facing a rainfall deficit.  With sorm activity expected to reamin lower in 2026, we are liekly to see these drought conditions persist through another year.

El Niño conditions in Fall and Winter tend to bring milder, wetter weather to our region. The cool-season rain brings just enough humidity to create a temperature buffer, preventing the air from cooling as quickly when cold fronts move through. Hopefully, that buffer will be enough to prevent major freezes from being common this winter. However, the cool-season humidity and rainfall can unfortunately create favorable conditions for fungal infections in Hillsborough’s winter crops. 

Knox also pointed out that clickbait articles and videos may use the term “Super El Niño” to harbor doom and gloom to get extra views, despite this not being a term used in scientific spheres. Terms like that tend to spread the incorrect notion that worse weather or more frequent disasters will happen. Knox and Fuhrmann both pointed out an important misconception surrounding El Niño and La Niña events: a stronger event does not necessarily mean worse conditions, just a higher likeliness that certain conditions will be present on any given day.

During the final topic, Gavazzi highlighted that there is a lack of region-specific information on preparing for prolonged drought in agriculture. Gavazzi also emphasized the importance of reaching out to NOAA’s NIDIS and USDA’s FSA/ NRCS agencies for site-specific help. NIDIS also has Decision Calendars that can help guide agricultural producers based on current climate data.

Overall, this was a fascinating, albeit technical, webinar that helped put our recent weather into perspective. Hillsborough County's farms, waterways, and water supply are worth watching closely as drought and strong El Niño conditons stick around in the coming months.

Check out the VOD of the webinar here: Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar + Drought Preparation, Mgmt, and Recovery Guides for Farmers